Risk Management Framework
Philosophy
Protect capital first; compound second. We avoid leverage and seek repeatable edges: LP fee flow and rules-based BTC rotations.
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Simple engines, auditable rules
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Diversify yield sources over time (RWA in later phase)
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Automate to remove discretionary drift
Objectives
- Keep rolling 30-day drawdown under –12% at the total NAV level.
- Maintain LP depth to target a blended lifecycle APR in the 68–200% band.
- Operate BTC sleeve at no-leverage, target 5–8% monthly on sleeve.
Monitoring
- Daily LP fee capture & range utilisation
- Signal audit trail & execution latency
- Counterparty / DEX health checks
- Monthly attestation-style statements
Key Risk Indicators (KRIs)
30d Max Drawdown (NAV)
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Limit: > –12% triggers de-risk
LP Range Utilization
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Target: 65–90%
DEX/Counterparty Health
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Operational status
BTC Sleeve Volatility
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Watch for regime change
Risk Universe
LP-Specific
Liquidity Provision
- Impermanent Loss: Divergence vs. HODL; mitigated by range rotation & partial SOL rebalance to USDC on exits.
- Range Depletion: Price exits band; addressed via rules to exit, realize fees, and re-enter on retrace.
- Fee Variability: APR fluctuates with volume; diversified pools and depth targets smooth fee capture.
- Smart Contract / DEX Risk: Contract bugs, oracle/routing issues; mitigated by DEX selection, audits, and caps per venue.
Signalhaus
BTC Accumulation
- Signal Regime Risk: Trending vs. choppy markets; mitigated by partial exits and DCA adds, no leverage.
- Execution Risk: Latency or webhook failure; mitigated by retries and manual override procedures.
- Slippage/Liquidity: Managed with size throttles and venue routing.
Operational
UAE Setup & Compliance
- Licensing, banking, audit readiness (RAK-style structure).
- KYC/AML for private sale; cap table & distributions hygiene.
- Key management, multisig policies, disaster recovery.
Market & Counterparty
Macro/Vol & Venue Risks
- High volatility shocks impacting ranges and BTC sleeve.
- DEX outages / RPC degradation; fallback venues and pause rules.
- Stablecoin de-peg risk; diversified stables and exposure caps.
Limits & Controls
Hard Limits
- No leverage across all sleeves.
- Venue cap: max 35% NAV per DEX / protocol.
- Stablecoin cap: max 40% NAV per stable issuer.
- LP depth guard: minimum working depth maintained across active ranges.
Pause & Rotate Rules
- NAV 30d drawdown < –12% ⇒ pause BTC adds; prioritize LP fee capture.
- DEX health degraded > 6 hours ⇒ freeze new LP entries, maintain exits.
- Range depletion ⇒ realize fees, rebalance 30–50% SOL→USDC, re-enter on retrace.
Governance & Ops
- Multisig for treasury moves; 2-of-3 minimum, 3-of-5 target.
- Key segregation (hot for execution, cold for treasury).
- Monthly statements; quarterly attestation-style review.
- Change management for code/parameters; versioned runbooks.
RWA / Dubai Real Estate (Later Stage): activated post-setup with separate risk budget and collateral policy; ring-fenced flows to DAO.
30-Day Stress Test (Illustrative)
Inputs
Illustrative only. Approximates 30-day impact using SOL shock (with partial IL), APR shift, outages, and BTC sleeve compounding.
Results
Projected NAV (30d)
LP Sleeve (30d)
$—
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BTC Sleeve (30d)
$—
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Projected 30d change: —
Policy status: within limits.
Disclosures & Important Information
- Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice. Capital is at risk. Crypto assets can be volatile and may lose value.
- APR ranges (68–200%) are lifecycle targets for LP ranges and are not guarantees; realized returns depend on market conditions, depth, and fees.
- Signalhaus operates without leverage; returns vary by regime. Historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.
- Operations depend on third-party infrastructure (DEXes, RPCs, custodians). We apply venue caps and operational runbooks to mitigate risk.
- RWA / Dubai real estate will be ring-fenced under separate policies once legal structure is complete.